Research · data as of Nov 13, 2026
Do insider buys beat the typical stock?
We looked at every open-market buy by a company's officers and directors from Oct 1, 2023 to Mar 31, 2026. For each stock, we took its price at the end of the quarter when they bought, and again 6 months later. Then we did the same for the typical stock over the same dates.
Over the next 6 months, the middle stock that insiders bought changed +2.2%, against +0.9% for the typical stock. It did better in 7 of 10 quarters. That is a small difference.
All quarters together
Middle change 6 months later
| Stocks where… | Stocks | Went up | Middle change | Quarters it did better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical stock 40,251 stocks · 52% went up | 40,251 | 52% | +0.9% | |
| Any officer or director bought 6,689 stocks · 54% went up | 6,689 | 54% | +2.2% | 7 of 10 |
| The CEO, CFO or president bought 2,835 stocks · 53% went up | 2,835 | 53% | +1.4% | 4 of 10 |
| $250K or more bought in the quarter 2,367 stocks · 51% went up | 2,367 | 51% | +0.6% | 6 of 10 |
| 2 or more insiders bought 2,642 stocks · 55% went up | 2,642 | 55% | +2.4% | 6 of 10 |
| 3 or more insiders bought 1,315 stocks · 55% went up | 1,315 | 55% | +2.9% | 7 of 10 |
| An insider grew their stake by 20% or more 2,325 stocks · 54% went up | 2,325 | 54% | +2.4% | 7 of 10 |
| An insider's first buy in over a year 2,827 stocks · 53% went up From Oct 2024 only (a buy is known to be the first in a year only after a year of data), so it is compared with the typical stock in the same quarters, below. | 2,827 | 53% | +1.8% | 4 of 6 |
| Typical stock, same quarters 25,184 stocks · 53% went up | 25,184 | 53% | +1.6% |
"Middle change" is the median: half the stocks did better, half did worse. "Quarters it did better" counts quarters where the group's middle change beat the typical stock's.
Quarter by quarter
Middle change 6 months later
| Bought in | Price checked | Typical stock | Any insider bought | 3+ insiders bought |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct–Dec 2023 Dec 31, 2023 → Jun 30, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 → Jun 30, 2024 | −0.6% | −1.2% | −0.9% |
| Jan–Mar 2024 Mar 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2024 | Mar 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2024 | +3.5% | +7.3% | +8.2% |
| Apr–Jun 2024 Jun 30, 2024 → Dec 31, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 → Dec 31, 2024 | +4.8% | +7.4% | +7.3% |
| Jul–Sep 2024 Sep 30, 2024 → Mar 31, 2025 | Sep 30, 2024 → Mar 31, 2025 | −7.2% | −5.1% | −3.9% |
| Oct–Dec 2024 Dec 31, 2024 → Jun 30, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 → Jun 30, 2025 | −3.0% | −3.9% | −3.9% |
| Jan–Mar 2025 Mar 31, 2025 → Sep 30, 2025 | Mar 31, 2025 → Sep 30, 2025 | +8.0% | +8.1% | +7.5% |
| Apr–Jun 2025 Jun 30, 2025 → Dec 31, 2025 | Jun 30, 2025 → Dec 31, 2025 | +2.2% | +2.2% | +3.4% |
| Jul–Sep 2025 Sep 30, 2025 → Mar 31, 2026 | Sep 30, 2025 → Mar 31, 2026 | −3.8% | −2.8% | +0.7% |
| Oct–Dec 2025 Dec 31, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026 | Dec 31, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026 | +4.6% | +8.2% | +11.3% |
| Jan–Mar 2026 Mar 31, 2026 → Sep 30, 2026 | Mar 31, 2026 → Sep 30, 2026 | +1.8% | +1.5% | +7.0% |
Insider track records
Does an insider's past record carry over?
We took each insider's open-market buys from Oct 1, 2023 to Mar 31, 2026, one per stock and quarter, and checked each one 6 months later against the typical stock. Then we grouped each buy by how the same insider's earlier buys had done. Only earlier buys whose 6 months had already ended count, so the record was known at the time of the buy.
| Earlier record | Buys | Beat typical | Middle vs typical |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good 2 of 3 or more beat | 717 | 65% | +6.5 pts |
| Mixed in between | 823 | 59% | +3.6 pts |
| Poor 1 of 3 or fewer beat | 638 | 47% | −0.7 pts |
| No record yet 0 or 1 earlier buy | 10,325 | 53% | +1.3 pts |
Buys by insiders with a good record beat buys by insiders with a poor record in 6 of 7 quarters with 20 or more of each.
A record needs 2 or more earlier buys. "Middle result vs typical" is the median of each buy's 6-month change minus the typical stock's, in percentage points. Prices checked through Sep 30, 2026. Most insiders buy only one stock, so a record mostly says how that stock did after they bought. On our insider pages we show a record only from 3 checked buys.
How we did it
- Buys: open-market buys (Form 4, code P) by officers and directors. Grants, option exercises and buys by 10%-only holders are left out. A stock counts once per quarter, however many buys it had.
- Prices: from funds' 13F reports. Each fund reports what it held at quarter end and its value; we take the middle value of value ÷ shares across at least 3 funds. So we only have quarter-end prices, through Sep 30, 2026.
- Typical stock: every company with insider filings in our data that we could price on both dates.
- Left out: any stock whose price moved more than 3 times up or down in 6 months. Those are mostly stock splits or bad data.
- What it can't tell you: these are past results over a short stretch. The 6-month windows overlap, the differences are small, and dividends are not counted.
Past results. This is data, not advice. We rerun the test each week as new filings come in.